CoreLogic Home Value Index
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) moved through a seventh month of decline in November, down -1.0% over the month to be -7.0%, or approximately -$53,400, below the peak value recorded in April 2022.
The decline comes after national housing values surged 28.6% higher through the recent upswing, adding roughly $170,700 to the value of the average dwelling.
Although values are continuing to trend lower, the rate of decline has been consistently moderating since the national index dropped by -1.6% in August.
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, but is also evident across many of the smaller capitals and most regional markets.
“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3%. That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3% in November. In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5% over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8%,” he said.
“The rate of decline has also eased across the ACT (from a -1.7% fall in August), and is no longer accelerating in Brisbane. Most of the broad rest-of-state markets have also seen the pace of declines decelerate.
“Potentially we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls. However, it’s fair to say housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.
“There is still the possibility that the pace of declines could reaccelerate, especially if the current rate hiking cycle persists longer than expected. Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire,” Mr Lawless said.
Across the capital cities, Brisbane and Hobart (both down -2.0%) led the monthly rate of decline in November, while at the other end of the spectrum, Perth values held firm and Darwin nudged 0.2% higher over the month.
Mr Lawless said the Perth and Darwin markets are yet to record any signs of a material reversal in housing prices.
“A comparatively healthy level of housing affordability, along with tight labour markets and relatively strong economic conditions, have helped to insulate these cities from the downturn so far,” he said.
Across the broad housing types, unit markets have continued a run of relative resilience. In November, capital city unit values were down -0.6%, while house values declined at twice the pace with a -1.2% drop. This trend has been seen throughout the downturn to-date, with capital city unit values down -4.7% from the recent peak, while house values are down -8.4%.
“Every capital city apart from Hobart is recording a more resilient outcome for unit values relative to houses. This trend can at least partially be attributed to the more moderate gains recorded during the upswing, but probably also reflects the unit sectors more affordable price point at a time when borrowing capacity has reduced,” Mr Lawless said.
Sydney remains the only city where housing values have fallen by more than 10% from their peak. Through the upswing, Sydney values increased by 27.7% before peaking in January. Despite the sharp fall in values through the downturn to-date (-11.4%), Sydney home values remain 10.3% above pre-COVID levels (March 2020).
Due to a weaker upswing, Melbourne values are only 2.8% above where they were at the onset of COVID. If housing values continue to fall at the current pace of -0.8% month-on-month, Melbourne’s dwelling values could fall to pre-COVID levels by March next year.
Most of the other capital city and broad rest-of-state regions are still recording dwelling values at least 25% above March 2020 levels.
Download the complete November Home Value Index for graphs, charts and in-depth commentary and analysis on:
Top 10 Capital city SA3s with highest 12 month value growth – Dwellings, and
Top 10 regional SA3s with highest 12 month value growth – Dwellings.